From: Ken Just
To:
Subject: Charizard Odds
Date: Tuesday, October 12, 1999 2:46 PM
Brian Brokaw
Re: What are the odds of getting a charizard?
You're answer is 100% correct but doesn't really
answer the question. The better question is how many
booster pack do you have to buy to get a charizrd?
The answer is
1-(47/48)^n=.90 Where n is the # of booster packs
you need to buy. With 90% probability of success.
You get 48 from 1 in 3 boosters is a holo and there
are 16 holos.
n = 109
If you buy 109 booster packs you will have a 90%
chance of gettin a charizard. Now obviously you could
get him in only one try but 109 will more or less
guarantees it.
How many booster packs packs does it take to "catch
em all"?
The math is too complicated for anyone here to care
but the answer is
for a 70% chance to "catch em all" buy 184 packs
for a 80% chance to "catch em all" buy 205 packs
for a 90% chance to "catch em all" buy 240 packs
for a 99% chance to "catch em all" buy 335 packs
Once again you could get lucky and get all 16 holos
in 16 trys but this is the probability of get all the
holo cards. The other cards are so common that you
will always get them before you get the holos. At $3 a
pack times 240 it will cost you $720. Boy I wish I
owned Wizards!
A pokemon father,
Ken Just
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