Statistical Analysis PTCG II - Successful Evolutions
William Hung April 19, 2003
Dear trainers,
Hello, I hope you all had a chance to read through the first
installment of my articles. I will use my first article as
reference as appropriate. Keep in mind all these material is meant
to help prepare for Skyridge SBZ, thus it is Modified.
From the analysis of card-drawing engine, I will now claim that we
can draw at LEAST 14 cards into the deck by turn 3. Your deck's
success is obviously get everything out by turn X, where turn X is
when your opponent draws a card or card(s) that says "I win, you
lose." Although there is no single overpowered
card in Modified, a deck like Gatr (Downpour) and Parasect is close
to it. It is next to impossible to beat this deck if you're not
ready with your main-line evolution. Keep in mind shuffling and
drawing 7 cards is not the
same as drawing 7 cards into the deck.
Quick reference example: You have 4 cards in your hand. You play
Elm to shuffle to draw 7 cards. The number of cards drawn into the
deck equal 7-4=3. Thus, with an initial 8-card hand, it is 11 cards
drawn into the deck.
Now, let's go through Evolution ratios quickly. If we based this
decision purely on statistics, we'll quickly conclude 4-4-4 for a
Stage 2. 4-4 for Stage 1. You get the picture. However, this
isn't optimal. Depending on the deck, this is bad "card economy".
Having Stage 2 as dead cards is very bad in Modified. "Card
economy" will be the last (upcoming) installment of these articles.
I will use Aquapolis Jumpluff as a deck-building example. It is by
no means stronger than Gatrs, Blastoise, but you will get a very
good idea of how things work (Assume 14 cards drawn by turn 3).
Need:
1 of 4 Hoppip
1 of 4 Skiploom
1 of 3 Jumpluff
1 of 16 Grass Energy (for simplicity)
With two Pokemon Traders, your success is 33.6%
With three Pokemon Traders, it is 38%.
With four Pokemon Traders, it is 40.8%
So, put either two or three Pokemon Trader into your deck.
Once you add two more Pokemon Fan Club, assuming two Pokemon Trader,
then the success rate is 43.2%.
What does this all mean? This means we want a secondary attacker,
because it allows us to put pressure on the opponent much earlier.
Thus, Kingdra and Steelix together is more successful than Kingdra
itself because you have two ways out.
Please note from the first article the probability of having a
crucial draw card early game. 4 Elm, 4 Copycat, 3 Cleffa yields 83%
rate of having at least one of each by turn 3, assuming you're not
having them in your initial hand. (0.432)(0.83) = 0.36 = 36%.
So the success rate for 4-4-3 Stage 2 evolution, 14 cards drawn into
the deck is 36%. The actual success rate is slightly higher, but
not too far off. Thus, Stage 2 evolutions must be incredible game
winners, while Stage 1 can be "optimal" Pokemon, such as Steelix.
In general, Stage 1 can be used to pressure the opponent early, as
well as giving you time to get Stage 2 out.
There are certainly exceptions, notably Entei/Magcargo. Now that we
established solid ground for successful evolution, the last
installment will use comparison and statistics to discuss "card
economy". It is the heart of these three articles, going into
Modified metagame and match-ups. Please stay tuned.