Ok. I'm sure every one of us is now aware of the little nasty that
WOTC has pulled on us, at least until the ECSTS (East Coast
Super Trainer Showdown) is finished. Some may like this format,
some may not. However, it is now a tangible element of the game,
not just something for a sidebar discussion anymore.

   Here is MY theory. It may concur with some of yours. I'm just
drawing from what seems like the obvious and putting my thoughts
out to air.

   WOTC, who cannot change the card texts themselves, does
have ability to govern and maintain the organized play of the game
and will use this limited control to oversee as much of their
investment as possible. It is my belief that after what could
possibly have been some extensive playtesting, (MT Mike's word
against ours) that Wizards feels that the Prop15 argument has
merit, or at least gives cause for the game's mechanics to be
examined closer, since the very fact that a rather large percentage
of the Pokemon TCG community cried for a better format hints at a
fundamental imbalance.
   This established, I think that WOTC has, for once, listened to the
voices of those who truly matter to the game, the die hard players
such as ourselves, and evaluated the pros and cons of such a
sweeping amendment. Perhaps they even did a little private testing
first, who can say?
   So now it seems that WOTC is reluctant to just make a broad
change across the board and wants to go a gentler route before
implementing the change. This is why they have chosen to use the
different format for the upcoming ECSTS. It will give them the
opportunity to observe how this system plays out once in the
hands of the truly twisted and evil genius deckbuilders who created
such a lopsided environment once before through shrewd
observation, cold calculatons and a little inspired madness.
If it does indeed give the tourney environment more variety, as
has been demanded for about 9 months now, I think that Wizards
may realistically subjugate it's DCI sponsored events and Pokemon
Leagues to the same fate.
     What most players demanded when devising the Prop15
argument was an alternate format for when they wanted to try new
decks in a serious competition but didn't want to be immediately
trounced by a Haymaker or Wigglytuff deck. If they wanted to play
by the old rules, they would have had the option to choose that
format also. This I feel is a very plausible arrangement, giving free
choice to all players.
    What I think players will get, however, is another thing entirely. If
this does succeed as well as hoped, which I get the feeling it will,
then I'm pretty sure we'll see it propagandized as THE main format,
with the format we've known all along being pushed to the
backburner for "old-school" players, labeled as "Classic", "Original"
or something else to indicate its antiquated existence. This is
tragic in a way, because the cutthroat environment is actually
pretty enjoyable for tough, gritty, well fought battles. If it weren't,
would the game have sprung to such a lofty pinnacle of popularity?
     WOTC has done similar things with Magic: the Gathering and
the original format has almost been long forgotten to all but the
most veteran players. (There once WAS a time when you could put
4 Sol Rings in a deck and be legal. Boy I miss those days. Movies
were a nickel and Moon Pies were a dime, but I digress.) I think
Pokemon may finally be headed down this darker road as well.

   How the ECSTS will play out is up in the air now. I think
Haymakers will still be a present force, not quite as strong, but still
forceful in the early game which may be enough to drive the match
home. Wiggly seems weaker with the 3 Pokemon limit surprise,
but I don't discredit inventive players who will see opportunites to
still use this once abusable Pokemon. Stall may become a very
powerful deck once again, particularly MoltresStall. More obligatory
room for Energy gives it the fuel it may need to thrive. Perhaps we
may even see a few Rogue decks creep into play. Cleaner could
finally rise up to the glory it has sought for so long. Potpourri could
also find its way back into the limelight, with several surprising
twists.
   Alternately, the Trapper may have been given the death sentence
since it's such a Trainer intensive deck. 15 Trainers isn't nearly
enough to pull off the first turn cripple/kill Trapper requires to
succeed.

   What do I forecast for this new format? Well certain Trainers will
almost certainly become even more powerful, since you have to
think of them now in terms of just how much of your game a Trainer
will influence.
   Professor Oak just got MEGA useful. This will remain the staple
of card drawing. I'd expect to see 3 Oaks in every deck, since this
leaves only 12 slots which will require non-drawing functions.
   Bill is now a big if. It might find its way into the format, but is the
net gain of 1 card really enough to constitute a valuable space of
only 15? Perhaps Bill has seen better days. However, it could
remain useful in proper decks.
    Gust of Wind will now be THE clutch card. With limited options
as far as Trainers go, manipulating the board via a well timed Gust
could very well prove critical to a match's outcome. With a heavier
reliance upon Pokemon, such a gambit will likely be harder from
which to recover.
     Energy Removal & Super Energy Removal may not see much
play. Now that we're only devoting 1/4 the deck to Trainers, this
sure leaves a LOT of room for Energy. The play of SER may not
have the profound impact it once did where Energy was limited to
around 18 per deck.
      Rocket Sneak attack was just dealt a dead man's hand.
MAYBE. You used to be able to rely upon your opponent having a
few key Trainers in his hand. This made RSA a safe risk. Now the
odds of finding a Trainer there are much reduced. You could be
wasting a card by playing it. OR...the impact of a well timed RSA
could have been dramatically heightened. Figure, if you will, a
situation where you have a chance to put the match away, but it
will require 2 turns at least. A Trainer like Gust of Wind or Oak
could really screw you up. But, an RSA could strip away the one
Trainer in your  opponent's hand which he'd been saving for an
emergency, knowing that the likelihood of drawing another was
much lower. In this capacity, RSA may become more potent.
    Lass, however should become a Tourney staple once more.
Since you're dealing with less Trainers overall, the detriment to
yourself is likely to be much less crippling, but could really hurt an
enemy. I will truly expect to many first turn Lassings at the
ECSTS. The after-effect it has in the 15-3C format is staggering.
    Nightly Garbage Run? Well, since you can't get back Trainers
with it, it's use will dwindle like the tourist traffic in Maine during
February. Now decks will have lots more Energy and Pokemon, so
why use NGR? Exactly.
    Cards like Energy Flow, Trash Exchange, Sabrina's Gaze and
Misty's Wrath may become very viable in the new system. These
cards aren't overpowered, but allow for enough flexibility in the
limited formats to be considered good. Trash Exchange particularly
may have a profound impact upon several  drawn-out battles.

    So what about Pokemon? Well for starters, it just got a lot
harder to fill your deck up with a few BBP's and go to town. You'll
run out or have trouble matching Energy up to the correct type if
you go that route exclusively. BBP's will still have a place in may
decks, especially a bunch of the new Gym critters like TR Scyther,
TR Hitmonchan. TR Zapdos, Lt. Surge's Electabuzz, TR Mewtwo
and TR Moltres. Of course the old Electabuzz, Scyther, Chansey,
MP Mewtwo, Hitmonchan and Fossil Magmar will have homes
inmany decks.

    However, since it will require more Pokemon to meet the 60 card
rule, most decks will call for several Stage 1 Pokemon. I feel that
Stage 2's will still be out of reach for most decks since there will be
a fair amount of early beatdown with BBP's and few decks can
afford the maximum slots for Pokemon Breeder now.
    For ages, there have been several very good Stage 1 Pokemon
that haven't been given much of a chance due to the domination of
Haymaker. Perhaps we'll see some of these come out.

     Venemoth should recive a chance in Grass based decks. It's
got a great Power and a really debilitating attack. It's plusses far
outweigh the minuses.
      Arcanine is a strong guy all the way from Base set with a
decent Basic and some crushing blows for a Stage 1. Toss in
enourmous HP and you've got a new contender.
       Dragonair posesses some mean attacks and even removes
Energy, which will be a great boon now that ER and SER aren't
such hot cards. Similar Stage 1's which have built in ER's will be
popular. Watch for Misty's Poliwhirl and Fossil Golducks to appear.
       Clefable may also receive the recognition it deserves as being
highly abusable. Metronome may create a quasi-lock in certain
decks. Could be painful.
       Ninetales's whopping 80 point Fire Blast is a serious
contender in the Power Stage 1 contest now. Too bad Vulpix is
pitifully weak. Still now that players will see more Energy in decks,
Ninetale's big drawback isn't quite so large anymore.
       Dewgong has always been pretty underrated. I'm not saying
it's a shoe in, but hey, you never know. Strong attacks and hefty
HP make it enough to think about. Too bad about that Retreat cost
though....
       Dark Arbok is one I've always liked but just wasn't tough
enough to fit into my decks. This could be his big break. Poison
Vapor is absolutely devastating in a restricted environment like 15-
3C. Wow, 10 poitns of damage, auto-poison and 10 damage to
each of the opponent's Benched Pokes. Ewwwwwww.
      Muk was ultra-feared when Fossil came out. "Ooooh Nooooo!
He can shut off all my Pokemon Powers!" Well, the fanfare was
louder than it should have been. Muk proved unplayable in most
decks since the Movie Mewtwo would destroy it so fast with a Gust
of Wind to help. But I think Muk would be extremely playable in
this format.
      Sabrina's Venemoth is the ultimate supprt Pokemon. He is a
combat medic and can Confuse Pokemon equally well. The retreat
is free and the Resistance to Fighting is standard on a flyer. Cheap
attacks with great results are what you should look for in the new
tourney formats. This one makes the grade with flying colors.
     If you've got enough of those cool Promo Eevees, Jolteon is a
wonderful idea. Good HP, potentially powerful attacks and a low
Retreat makes him a solid choice. And with those Promo Eevees
you could suddenly have a hit squad before your opponent knows
what happened.
     Dark Raichu is another deadly bench buster. While it only has
one attack, a couple lucky flips means disaster for the opponent.
Not a sure fire to make an appearance in the ECSTS, but a dark
horse anyhow.
     Fossil Haunter could sure make some strong metagame
possibilities happen. He's weak in HP, but strong everywhere else.
Think about it.
     Dark Hypno is another one that got passed over previously for
not having enough HP, despite having some deadly attacks.
Psypunch is a standard 20 for 1, but Bench Manipulation can drive
an opponent insane. Good against anyone determined to try
Wigglytuff in the limited format.
    Lt. Surge's Fearow is another example of a strategy that could
prove very useful in the new metagame. Clutch is good for some
mean beatdown after a timed Gust of Wind. In conjunction with
Dragonair, you may have a mean combo. Surge's Fearow also has
the benefit of no retreat.

     As far as the other Basic Pokemon go, there a couple potential
standouts in the crowd.
    Mr. Mime may once again have a place. There could be some
odd basics floating around due to people using Stage 1's, but I
think that BBP's will still dominate the field with the Stage 1's as
sweeper support. Most Basics won't be able to hurt Mimey.
    Similarly, Erika's Dratini will be able to withstand the blows of all
thos pesky Basics until you get you own big guns a blazing. But
don't expect it to hold out too long. More POkemon does mean
more Evolutions and Eriak's dratini is mincemeat to Evolutions.
You can't jam Potions into your deck either.
    Kangaskhan and her precious Fetch ability may be an upstart in
the field. As a staller, Kangaskhan is supreme. 90 HP is very nice.
A card drawing ability is nice too. A 4 Energy attack that relies
upon coin flips is iffy though. Expect to see her used as fodder to
fuel up a hand.
     Lapras will now be able to run alongside other Pokemon outside
of Raindance decks. Its high HP and low attack costs make it a
good opener as well, if one plans to go Water without Blastoise.

      The matches in this format, according to my crystal ball, will
see a very conservative approach. Many players will try to stick as
close as possible to the tried and true, allowing only deviations
where it's needed to fill in leftover slots. This is where the extra
Stage 1's and Energy come in. Now I'd expect to witness around
25 Energy per deck, instead of around 18. A 20 Pokemon average
is also forecast. Most decks may fall under that mark, but I can't
say for certain.
      I think the dominant decks will be either adjusted Haymaker
variants or a Potpourri approach. Both use quick Pokemon to gain
control early. They once thrived upon Trainer support, and that will
be present to lesser degree, with Oaks, Gusts of Wind and Lasses
composing much of the Trainer base.
      Wigglytuff just won't be able to cut it with a 3/3 ratio. This
leaves too much room for a bad draw with no way to recover. Tons
of card drawing is Wiggly's staple. This time around it's got a
severe handicap.

           Mind you these are just my thoughts on the whole
scenario, why it was brought about, the likelihood of it becoming a
permanent feature and how we can expect to reevaluate our cards.
I'm sure my approach to the ECSTS will be much different than
many, but in the end, we'll see just how the Pokemon community
elects to use this new format to its advantage and whether WOTC
sees this new approach as a good thing.
      My personal belief about Prop15 and all similar amendments
has always been "If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But if you do go
tinkering under the hood, don't make it worse than it already is."
Let's see if Wizards abides by this credo.

                        Good Luck!!
                      Dr. Crash Landon
                       crash@pojo.com