Luck
by Ace28
February 21, 2005
Briefing:
Hi! It’s good to be writing for all of you again! Today, I
will be discussing how “Luck” plays a role in the game of
Pokemon. First off, let me ask you something. Were you ever
in a game and you were pretty much dominating the whole of
it but managed, somehow to lose in the very end? Or have you
ever been in a game where you were being crushed, but
managed to pull out a win? Most of us have been in both of
these situations before. Both of these situations might have
you scratching your head afterwards and cause you to wonder
how it happened. This is one great thing about Pokemon. No
matter what situation you may be in, a comeback can always
be very probable.
Intro:
Lets get started with some basic calculations. As we can see
there are sixty cards in a deck. (I am going to be using “X”
as the variable.) The less cards you have in a deck the less
likely you are to draw them. Having 1 X : 0.0166666% ,
Having 2 X: 0.0333333% , Having 3 X: 0.05% , Having 4 X:
0.0666666%.
Obviously, the more of a card you have the better chances
you have of drawing it in the beginning of the game. *Note
The above percentages of drawing a card only apply to the
first card you draw. You see, after you draw your first card
the number you divide by changes from sixty to fifty nine
percent etc and therefore, changing the whole likeliness of
drawing it. Basically, as the number you divide by decreases
the likeliness of you drawing the card increases and having
more of the card increases it even more.
I
will give you an example of a deck that took advantage of
this knowledge. Back in the day, when only the Base set was
out, a pretty funny deck people would play consisted of the
following cards: One Mewtwo and Fifty Nine Psychic Energy.
The decks purpose was to deck the opponent. The game would
start and the person using this deck had high chances having
a bunch of mulligans (Not having a basic pokemon in their
hand.) The opponent would draw two cards because of this.
The cards drawn would start to add up and by the time the
game actually began, the hand size of the player playing
against this deck would be pretty big. The Mewtwo would just
keep using barrier over and over again until the opponent
ran out of cards. This deck would lose to energy removals
pretty easily...but still I guarantee you wouldn’t find a
more inexpensive deck to play. :D
Mid:
Moving on...The following equations are the chances of
drawing in your opening hand. (Once again I will be using
“X” as the variable.)
First Card (Drawing from 60/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0166666% (1/60), Having 2 X: 0.0333333%
(2/60), Having 3 X: 0.05% (3/60), Having 4 X:
0.0666666% (4/60).
Second
Card (Drawing from 59/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0169491% (1/59), Having 2 X: 0.0338983%
(2/59), Having 3 X: 0.0508474% (3/59), Having 4 X:
0.0677966% (4/59).
Third
Card (Drawing from 58/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0172413% (1/58), Having 2 X: 0.0344827%
(2/58), Having 3 X: 0.0517241% (3/58), Having 4 X:
0.0689655% (4/58).
Fourth
Card (Drawing from 57/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0175438% (1/57) , Having 2 X: 0.0350877%
(2/57) , Having 3 X: 0.0526315% (3/57), Having 4 X:
0.0701754% (4/57).
Fifth
Card (Drawing from 56/60)
Having
1 X : 0.0178571% , Having 2 X: 0.0357142% , Having 3 X:
0.0535714% , Having 4 X: 0.0714285%.
Sixth
Card (Drawing from 55/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0181818% (1/55) , Having 2 X: 0.0363636%
(2/55), Having 3 X: 0.0545454% (3/55) , Having 4 X:
0.0727272% (4/55).
Seventh Card (Drawing from 54/60)
Having 1 X : 0.0185185% (1/54), Having 2 X: 0.037037% (2/54)
, Having 3 X: 0.0555555% (3/54) , Having 4 X:
0.074074%. (4/54)
*Notice that these are the chances of drawing “X” before you
put prizes down. After you put prizes down the
percentages increase, but “X” might be in prizes making the
chance of drawing it 0% :) If you followed this procedure
throughout the whole game chances are the game would be
boring and the person who would win would probably be
whoever can get the most energy out on all their pokemon
first.
This is why we play trainers, and Pokemon themselves that
search for the cards you want and let you get what you need
at that moment. I am hoping that those are the kinds of
cards you put more then one of in your deck(unless there is
no need to). Now that you look at it, you should see that
the purpose of these cards are to speed up what you want to
set up. If you can draw the cards you need faster then your
opponent you win. Imagine you are playing Zap-Turn-Dos or
whatever. If it is a good deck, you will have cards that are
meant to get Zapdos out as fast as possible. Cards like Dual
Ball and Lanettes Net Search you put in for the purpose of
getting Zapdos. Other cards are put in to abuse Zapdos’s
Pokemon Power like Super Scoop Up. Using these cards gives
you the option of not playing four Zapdos. Theoretically
you have better chances of getting Zapdos if you play four
instead of three. However, by playing those trainers instead
of more Zapdos you have a better chance of getting Zapdos
faster. (Kinda Ironic ;\) My advice is to play four Zapdos
though and the trainers since you want to keep rotating them
and in order to do that you need them. This is just one
example and be applied to every deck in Pokemon since every
good deck uses cards to abuse something, rather it be the
attack requirements or the poke power wording.
One thing that I have not discussed yet is the Odds in
rolling dice or flipping coins. There have been many games
won by outstanding flips and many lost by horrible flips.
Theoretically if you flip a coin 50 times you will get Heads
fifty percent of the time and tails fifty percent of the
time. Experimentally...there have been some well, very
different outcomes. I have been to tourneys and seen people
flip more then eight tails in a row during a two turn span.
I myself have flipped and/or rolled many tails and it is
frustrating, BUT you must not dwell on your miserable
flips. You must remain focused and try to make the best of
it. If you dwell on your flips you will not play as good
during the game and become probably become pretty unpopular
for whining about it constantly :X Playing your best in the
worst situations is what will develop your skill so much
more. Make it a habit to expect the worst in flips/rolls and
always play as if you have six prizes left and your opponent
has one.(But keep in mind that even though you are playing
like that scramble energy still won’t count as three until
your opponent physically has more prizes taken then you ;x)
Closing:
There are many names to label this as...Luck, Odds, Chances,
etc. Regardless of what you label it, remember to not depend
on it 100% of the time. :) If we plan to learn we need to
learn to plan. Whatever deck you play make sure you know it
front and back by the time you play it at a tournament so
you do not get lost and forget the purpose of the cards in
it. Think carefully and do not rush yourself into a bad
decision because that is where most bad decisions come from.
Play great and have fun!
~Ace28
*As always, comments and feedback are greatly encouraged. :)
Email:
PwN@adelphia.net
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