Treasure Hunt
This one requires a good bit of math to properly
evaluate. Stick with me on this one.
If you flip a coin until you get tails (i.e.
stopping after the first tails), you will on
average get one heads. I don't have the exact
math to back up this claim, but it works out
because the odds of getting tails on your very
first flip (zero heads) are 50%, and the odds of
getting two or more heads (2 heads + 3 heads + 4
heads + 5 heads...) will approach 50% as the
potential number of heads approaches infinity.
Why is this relevant? Because when you cast
Treasure Hunt, you're basically flipping a coin
until you get tails. Except your "coin" is the
top card of your library, "heads" is a land, and
"tails" is a nonland card. You're drawing cards
until you get a nonland card. Except your odds
of getting a land on any given flip are
determined by your land count when you build
your deck. For the average 60-card deck, running
20-24 land, the odds are 33%-40%, less than the
odds of getting heads on a coin flip, so on
average you'll get less than one heads. That
translates to a nonland card on top of your
library, and thus Treasure Hunt giving you one
card, making it effectively no better than
Explore, which I didn't like (and received
E-mails criticizing me over). In a Limited deck,
with 40 cards and probably 18 lands, your
chances of a land on any given flip are still
below 50%, so on average you'll get less than
two cards out of the deal. However, in Extended
there are archetypes that run 43-or-so land to
abuse Seismic Assault, and in those decks, this
card would be very profitable.
But there's more to it. Treasure Hunt doesn't
just draw you a card with the potential of
additional cards. It also guarantees that
exactly one of the cards you draw will be a
spell. Since topdecking lands is almost never
what you want outside of a landfall deck, this
is a very useful draw spell because it will
always replace itself with another spell, and
potentially draw you through any upcoming land
patches. For me, the prospect of drawing lots of
lands isn't as exciting as the certainty that
I'll draw a spell.
There was once a famous player named Michelle
Bush, who was reputedly the first person to say
"End of turn, Fact or Fiction, you lose." I
wonder what she'd have to say about Treasure
Hunt? It can draw twice as many cards as Fact or
Fiction - maybe more, in the right fun deck -
although you'll usually need another card or two
to win. (Conflagrate, anyone?) I'm sure she'd be
a fan, and I'm sure you'll come to be a fan too.
Magic The Gathering Card of the Day: Treasure
Hunt
Welcome back readers today’s card of the day
is not only flavorfully tied to the set it
appears in but is a powerful card for blue
mages, Treasure Hunt from Worldwake. The ability
to draw multiple cards is indeed a tempting
thing for blue mages and Treasure hunt has
already been hailed as the next great card draw
spell the reality is somewhere between the hype.
In standard being able to draw more than one
card for such a low mana cost is a godsend to
decks that can manipulate their draws and
successfully reap the advantage of being able to
reveal cards from the top of your library until
you reveal a nonland card. With the right deck
construction or library manipulation this card
can net killer advantage. Combine with cards
like Halimar Depths from Worldwake and you can
gain advantage instantly. In standard this card
will see play in a variety of decks and could
have decks built around its abusive potential.
In extended and eternal formats this card will
see play, combine this with Seismic Assault and
watch the fun begin. It will benefit existing
archetypes and even help fuel others. In casual
and multiplayer this card is great, its card
drawing so it puts you ahead of your opponents
if your deck can utilize it perhaps with
Sensei’s Diving top and Counterbalance could
help you rack up the advantage. In limited card
draw is important and if you’re in blue you
can’t go wrong with this card, make sure to grab
some Halimar Depths if able. Overall Treasure
Hunt is one of the more powerful blue cards to
see print in a while and expect for players to
take advantage of this fact.
Today's card of the day is Treasure Hunt which
is easy to overlook, but quite powerful as a
draw engine. It is at worst two mana to draw a
card, but fairly often this will get at least
one land with it especially if played after one
of Blue's many options for stacking the top of
their library which include Sage Owl, Ponder,
and the new Jace.
In the best case scenario this will plow through
an entire mana pocket turning what would have
been a likely loss into a fair fight. Well worth
playing and combines well with cards like
yesterday's Selective Memory.
For Constructed, Casual, and Multiplayer this
is a solid addition to any Blue deck, but not
really powerful by itself. Without support
expect it to work like a cantrip and draw one
card, but sometimes get a few lands. With the
right deck this can be a subtle yet critical
part of a bigger combination. The only real
drawback is the Sorcery speed which prevents it
from being played at the end of your opponent's
turn if your mana went unused for negation or
bounce.
In Limited the presence of Landfall and
higher concentrations of lands in decks makes
this even more useful as the odds of getting
more than one card is improved. Not a first
choice in Booster, but if you plan on running
Blue try to pick up a few copies during the
draft. In Sealed if Blue is in the deck there is
no reason not to play this in the hopes of
getting some triggers for Landfall and a useful
spell.
